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US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations in Flux 04/28 06:11
Diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war stalled again over the weekend as
both sides dug in on their demands, even as they face mounting pressure to
reach a compromise.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- Diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war
stalled again over the weekend as both sides dug in on their demands, even as
they face mounting pressure to reach a compromise.
Iran said it won't reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless the United States
lifts its blockade and ends the war. U.S. President Donald Trump wants a
broader deal that would end Iran's nuclear program and address other issues
like its missile program and support for regional proxies.
For both sides, the clock is ticking.
The continued closure of the strait has sent gas prices soaring and could
cause further damage to the world economy ahead of U.S. midterm elections. The
blockade is strangling Iran's economy.
Each side is waiting for the other to blink. Here is what to know.
Iran has a new offer
Iran's latest proposal would put off negotiations on its nuclear program to
a future date.
Instead, the deal would only see Tehran end its chokehold on the Strait of
Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its blockade on Iranian ports and a
long-term or permanent truce, according to two regional officials with
knowledge of the proposal who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the
closed-door negotiations.
That offer will likely be rejected by Trump. For one, it doesn't address the
core issue he cited when he began bombing on Feb. 28: finding a way to ensure
that Iran cannot build an atomic weapon. It also appears to be silent on other
major questions, like Iran's missile program and its support of proxies in the
region.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to rule out any deal that
excludes Iran's nuclear program, telling Fox News in an interview Monday, "We
can't let them get away with it."
"We have to ensure that any deal that is made, any agreement that is made,
is one that definitively prevents them from sprinting towards a nuclear weapon
at any point," Rubio said.
This weekend, Trump held back sending envoys to Pakistan, which has been
playing a crucial mediating role. By saying the Iranians could call Washington
with any proposal, Trump appears to be signaling he's content to try to
continue to squeeze Iran via a blockade.
The Strait of Hormuz remains shut
The U.S. blockade both squeezes Iran's oil sales -- a key source of hard
currency for its theocracy -- and threatens to force Tehran to eventually shut
down its production if it can't get its crude to market. Already, Iran has
faced troubles at home over its economy, and it could worsen as time goes on.
The global economy also is suffering: With few ships able to cross the
strait, through which about 20% of all traded oil and natural gas passes, oil
and gasoline prices are skyrocketing and jet fuel, cooking gas and other energy
products are starting to become scarce in parts of the world.
A ceasefire without a deadline
The current truce began April 8 after multiple deadlines posed by Trump that
threatened Iran's very "civilization" at one point. A separate ceasefire
between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon also has
taken effect.
Trump has now extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely after whipsawing
between various timelines for the conflict.
But negotiations for ending the war have stalled.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance took part in an earlier round of talks days
after the truce began -- the highest-level ones between America and Iran since
the 1979 Islamic Revolution. They ended without agreement.
Pakistan is trying to get the two sides back to the table in Islamabad. But
this weekend it took down all the checkpoints and security it had in place in
anticipation of negotiations. That signals there's no immediate hope of talks
resuming.
American firepower in the region grows
While negotiations appear at a stalemate, the U.S. military presence in the
Middle East continues to grow. As of Monday, the U.S. Navy had three aircraft
carrier groups in the region: the USS Abraham Lincoln, the USS Gerald R. Ford
and the USS George H.W. Bush.
Those carriers include some 15,000 sailors and Marines, as well as over 200
aircraft and additional ships. An amphibious assault group led by the USS
Tripoli is also in the Mideast, with its own sailors, Marines and aircraft.
That comes on top of the warplanes, refuelers and other troop deployments to
the region.
Iran seeks help from abroad
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir
Putin on Monday, Russian state news agency Tass said. That followed Araghchi's
visits to Pakistan and Oman in recent days. Pakistan has been a key mediator in
this war, and Oman has long has been a key interlocutor between the U.S. and
Iran.
Russia broadly has stayed out of the latest conflict. Moscow has been
floated as a possibility to take in Iran's highly enriched uranium -- removal
of which Trump has insisted on. That uranium could be used to build a bomb,
should Iran choose to pursue one -- though Tehran insists its program is only
for civilian purposes.
Russia has signaled it is willing to assist, though Tehran maintains it will
not give up its stockpile.
All of Iran's highly enriched uranium remains in the country, likely
entombed at enrichment sites bombed by the U.S. during a 12-day war last June.
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