Iran Deal: Strait Reopens, Can Sell Oil06/17 06:14

   Iran will immediately take steps to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once a 
tentative deal with the U.S. to end the war is signed and will be allowed to 
sell its oil without restrictions, according to leaked copies of an interim 
agreement that officials say broadly matches the document.

   DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- Iran will immediately take steps to 
reopen the Strait of Hormuz once a tentative deal with the U.S. to end the war 
is signed and will be allowed to sell its oil without restrictions, according 
to leaked copies of an interim agreement that officials say broadly matches the 
document.

   The accord, due to be formally signed in a ceremony in Switzerland on 
Friday, lays out that the U.S. would secure at least $300 billion to rebuild 
Iran after the war and work to end all American and United Nations sanctions 
imposed on Tehran if a final agreement addressing Iran's nuclear program is 
reached.

   The U.S. agreement to immediately allow Iran to sell its oil freely and the 
offer to eventually lift all sanctions represent major concessions that 
outstrip the terms of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, which U.S. 
President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from in his first term, 
declaring it the "worst deal ever." This new accord likely will draw intense 
criticism in Washington -- and appears to be a major setback for Israeli Prime 
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who launched the war with Trump on Feb. 28.

   The deal calls for an immediate end to all fighting in Lebanon between 
Israel and the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah. That is one of the most 
delicate parts of the agreement because Israel has maintained it will continue 
to defend itself and to occupy vast swaths of Lebanon. Iran has said it must 
withdraw under the deal, although the leaked versions make no mention of 
withdrawal.

   The two sides are to start 60 days of negotiations over a final deal that 
the Trump administration insists will prevent Iran from ever developing a 
nuclear weapon. The U.S. offers appear aimed at enticing Iran to strike an 
agreement.

   But in the meantime, Iran appears to be getting benefits up front while 
making few concessions. Much of the agreement would restore the status quo 
before the war, including ending hostilities and reopening the strait, which is 
a crucial passage for the world's oil and natural gas and whose closure created 
a historic energy crisis.

   Other concessions to Iran -- some of which are extraordinary, including the 
money for rebuilding, the full lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen 
assets -- appear dependent on the progress of further negotiations on Iran's 
nuclear program.

   A person who was briefed on the memorandum of understanding after it was 
signed and another who viewed a copy beforehand said it largely matched the 
text of what was published by the Saudi-owned broadcaster Al Arabiya, which 
reported details of the deal Tuesday. The two people spoke on condition of 
anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.

   Another two officials in the Mideast, who spoke on condition of anonymity 
for the same reason, also said the versions published by Al Arabiya and 
Bloomberg broadly matched the final agreement.

   The White House and other American officials have not published the terms 
and did not immediately respond to questions. Iran also has not published an 
official version of the deal. Iran's semiofficial Tasnim news agency, close to 
its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, claimed Wednesday that Bloomberg's 
version had missing portions, without offering a full accounting.

   The deal would provide relief to the global economy

   The deal provides a major win for the global economy -- the reopening of the 
Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of 
all oil and natural gas traded once passed before the war began. Since then, 
Iranian attacks on shipping and the threat to vessels effectively shut the 
strait.

   The strait's closure drove up energy prices around the world and made many 
basics, including food, more expensive. Iran let out some vessels that paid 
tolls, something never done before in the strait, which sits in the territorial 
waters of Iran and Oman and long has been considered an international waterway. 
The U.S. later provided military support to get other tankers out, but traffic 
through the strait was nowhere near levels before the war.

   The deal calls for the U.S. to lift a blockade imposed on Iranian ports and 
for the strait to return to its prewar traffic levels in 30 days, while 
acknowledging Iranian mines may still be in its waters that need to be 
destroyed.

   The deal provides major concessions to Iran

   While the deal says that the eventual lifting of sanctions on Iran will 
depend on future negotiations, the U.S. will immediately issue waivers on 
Iranian oil sales.

   Granting oil waivers directly at the start of the 60-day talks strips the 
U.S. of a major point of leverage over Iran. In the years before the 2015 
nuclear deal, Iranian oil faced international sanctions limiting their sales. 
Only at the conclusion of the overall deal in 2015 were those sanctions lifted.

   The interim deal also opens the door to ending all sanctions Iran faces from 
the U.S. and at the U.N. -- though it says the schedule for that will be worked 
out later. Still, that is far beyond the 2015 deal, which only lifted some 
sanctions in exchange for Iran drastically reducing its enrichment and 
stockpile of uranium.

   The accord would also provide Iran with at least $300 billion to rebuild 
after an intense U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign -- an extraordinary figure 
and another major benefit for Iran. U.S. Vice President JD Vance has said Gulf 
Arab nations would provide that amount as investments in Iran.

   The deal leaves much more to be resolved in future negotiations

   The interim deal sets a 60-day window, which can be extended, to negotiate 
over limiting Iran's nuclear program, which has been discussed at multiple 
rounds of talks during Trump's second administration without success. Iran 
maintains its nuclear program is peaceful, though it has enough highly enriched 
uranium to build multiple atomic bombs, should it choose to do so, according to 
the International Atomic Energy Agency.

   In the interim deal, Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear 
weapons -- a promise that it also made in the 2015 nuclear accord. Iranian 
diplomats have long pointed to statements from the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 
that Iran wouldn't build an atomic bomb. It remains unclear whether Khamenei's 
son, Iran's new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, will follow that or 
not.

   Trump has cited shifting goals for the war, including at times vowing it 
would end Iran's nuclear and missile programs and its support for Hezbollah and 
other proxy groups in the region. He also suggested it could lead to toppling 
the Iranian government.

   The interim deal falls short of all of these goals. The negotiations also 
exposed a rift between Netanyahu and Trump, the Israeli leader's closest and 
most important ally, just as Netanyahu is seeking reelection. Netanyahu has 
come under heavy domestic criticism over the emerging deal but will be hard 
pressed to go against Trump, given Israel's heavy reliance on the U.S. for 
diplomatic and military support.