|
|
Printable Page
11/04 05:00 CST The math behind why some teams go for 2 when down 8 in the NFL
The math behind why some teams go for 2 when down 8 in the NFL
By JOSH DUBOW
AP Pro Football Writer
When the Carolina Panthers scored a fourth-quarter touchdown to cut Green Bay's
lead to eight points, coach Dave Canales opted to go for 2 instead of kicking
an extra point in what has become a far more common decision even if it still
bewilders some broadcasters and fans.
The Panthers missed and lost by eight last Thursday so the decision proved moot
in the end but it's sure to come up again.
So here's the explanation on why teams have made the switch in strategy.
Since the extra point was moved back in 2015, teams have made 94.4% of extra
points and 48% of 2-point tries. To do the math, there need to be some
assumptions made starting with a team converting at league average rates and
overtime being a 50-50 proposition.
A team would have about a 45% chance of making the first 2-point try, kicking
the extra point and winning in regulation with those numbers, with about a 27%
chance of losing in regulation and 28% chance of forcing overtime. That makes
for a 59% chance of winning in that scenario.
But that doesn't account for the opposing team being incentivized to be more
aggressive if trailing by a point with time left or the specifics of the
matchup. The numbers would obviously change if a team is better or worse at
making 2-point conversions --- Carolina is 2 for 11 in three seasons under
Canales --- or if overtime isn't a coin flip. But the broad strokes remain the
same.
In all, there have been six teams that have faced the choice in the fourth
quarter this season, whether to kick an extra point to cut a deficit to seven
points or go for 2 and try to make it a six-point game. Four teams went for 2
and two tried for the extra point and they went 0-5-1. The Giants were the only
ones that didn't lose after kicking two extra points after touchdowns to force
overtime in a 27-27 tie against Washington in Week 5.
The first team to employ the strategy was Bill Belichick's Cleveland Browns in
the first year of the 2-point conversion in 1994. The Browns converted in Week
9 that season to cut the deficit to 20-14 but ended up losing 26-14.
There were a handful of other tries over the next two decades --- mostly on bad
snaps or in bad weather --- before Doug Pederson and the Philadelphia Eagles
brought it to the modern game in Week 5 of 2018 with a conversion that cut
Minnesota's lead to 20-14 early in the fourth quarter. The Vikings added a
field goal to get the lead back to nine points and eventually won 23-21.
But the strategy slowly gained popularity with teams trying it 26 times in the
regular season and playoffs since the start of 2023, including a record nine
times in 2025.
Limiting it to the last 10 minutes of regulation when there are fewer chances
of possessions remaining, there has been an even split since the start of 2023
with 20 teams choosing each option.
Teams are 4-16 when going for 2, including a win by Atlanta last season after
missing both 2-point tries before beating Tampa Bay on a last-second field
goal. The other winners were all by one point in regulation, with Green Bay
beating New Orleans and Tennessee beating Miami in 2023, and the Jets beating
Cincinnati last season.
Teams are 3-15-1 when going for the extra point with all three wins coming in
2023 with two touchdowns and a field goal --- including one in Week 10 that
season when Cleveland missed the game-tying extra point before beating the
Ravens on a last-second field goal.
Bears pull off impressive back-to-back wins The Chicago Bears made their case to be considered part of the NFL's elite. Chicago followed up a Week 7 win against defending AFC champion New England by beating defending Super Bowl champion Seattle 34-17 on the road Monday to pull off a rare double. According to Sportradar, the Bears are the seventh team to beat the teams that played in the previous Super Bowl in back-to-back games. It's been more frequent of late thanks in part to the 17th game, which adds another nonconference matchup, with the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas doing it last season and Buffalo in 2024. Before that, the only teams to do it were Atlanta in 2016, Detroit in 1985 and the Chargers in 1982. The Falcons are the only one of those six teams even to make the Super Bowl.
Bucs win a throwback game against the Falcons Tampa Bay's 16-0 win over Atlanta on Sunday in the rain conjured up a far different era of football. The Buccaneers pulled off the victory without completing a single pass, marking the first time in more than a half-century that an NFL team finished a game without a completion. Baker Mayfield went 0 for 3 as the Bucs got 324 yards rushing and four turnovers to win the game. The last time a team failed to complete a pass came on Sept. 29, 1974, when Buffalo beat the New York Jets 16-12 on a day when Joe Ferguson went 0 for 2 and O.J. Simpson ran for 117 yards. Hall of Famer Joe Namath had a rough day for the Jets, going 2 for 18 for 33 yards and three interceptions. Michael Penix went 8 for 24 for 125 yards and four interceptions in the loss on Sunday with the combined passer rating of 6.8 for the two teams the lowest in any game since Tampa Bay and the New York Giants had a 4.5 on Oct. 15, 1978. In all, there have been 14 games in the last 90 seasons when a team finished with no completions. Eleven of those happened in 1950 or earlier. The win by Tampa Bay improved the record in those games to 8-4-2. ___ Inside the Numbers dives into NFL statistics, streaks and trends each week. For more Inside the Numbers, head here. ___ See AP's full NFL coverage here
Bears pull off impressive back-to-back wins The Chicago Bears made their case to be considered part of the NFL's elite. Chicago followed up a Week 7 win against defending AFC champion New England by beating defending Super Bowl champion Seattle 34-17 on the road Monday to pull off a rare double. According to Sportradar, the Bears are the seventh team to beat the teams that played in the previous Super Bowl in back-to-back games. It's been more frequent of late thanks in part to the 17th game, which adds another nonconference matchup, with the Los Angeles Chargers and Dallas doing it last season and Buffalo in 2024. Before that, the only teams to do it were Atlanta in 2016, Detroit in 1985 and the Chargers in 1982. The Falcons are the only one of those six teams even to make the Super Bowl.
Bucs win a throwback game against the Falcons Tampa Bay's 16-0 win over Atlanta on Sunday in the rain conjured up a far different era of football. The Buccaneers pulled off the victory without completing a single pass, marking the first time in more than a half-century that an NFL team finished a game without a completion. Baker Mayfield went 0 for 3 as the Bucs got 324 yards rushing and four turnovers to win the game. The last time a team failed to complete a pass came on Sept. 29, 1974, when Buffalo beat the New York Jets 16-12 on a day when Joe Ferguson went 0 for 2 and O.J. Simpson ran for 117 yards. Hall of Famer Joe Namath had a rough day for the Jets, going 2 for 18 for 33 yards and three interceptions. Michael Penix went 8 for 24 for 125 yards and four interceptions in the loss on Sunday with the combined passer rating of 6.8 for the two teams the lowest in any game since Tampa Bay and the New York Giants had a 4.5 on Oct. 15, 1978. In all, there have been 14 games in the last 90 seasons when a team finished with no completions. Eleven of those happened in 1950 or earlier. The win by Tampa Bay improved the record in those games to 8-4-2. ___ Inside the Numbers dives into NFL statistics, streaks and trends each week. For more Inside the Numbers, head here. ___ See AP's full NFL coverage here
