REDFIELD, Iowa (DTN) -- Drought across Nebraska and other areas in the upper Midwest has continued to increase red flag warning and wildfire risk conditions.
At the end of last week and during the weekend, various wildfires burnt large areas in Nebraska, especially the Ashby and Minor fires in Grant County, Nebraska. The Ashby fire has reached more than 36,004 acres and the Minor fire is at 14,082 acres. The Johnson Hills Incident fire in Phelps County, southwest of Kearney, Nebraska, destroyed over 1,200 acres. In northwest Iowa, a fire near Lawton was at one point 7.1 miles long and 1.5 miles wide, according to the Iowa State Patrol. Iowa has several active burn bans, while the entire state of Nebraska is under a burn ban through April 10.
DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said three separate storm systems are set to move across the country this week. "On the surface, that would suggest a lot of precipitation. But there are some areas that will see very little precipitation out of the active weather pattern this week," he said. "Models are still working out the details, but the main impacts should be from central and eastern Texas up through the Midwest with the heaviest precipitation."
The current U.S. Drought Monitor shows several large portions of Nebraska in D3 Extreme Drought, with the majority of the rest of the state in D2 Severe Drought causing the elevated fire risks. (See https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/… for Nebraska; see https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/… for drought update for entire country).
Baranick said the first system should largely pass by those in the Plains in the deepest drought, leaving Nebraska, western Iowa and areas south of that pretty dry on Monday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur along a front on Tuesday, but would be from eastern Kansas and parts of Oklahoma, through Missouri, moving up to Ohio.
"The second storm system looks a lot more interesting for those in the Plains in deep drought. A system will move into Kansas on Wednesday and areas from South Dakota down to Texas will see scattered showers and thunderstorms going into early Thursday," he added. "Some severe weather will be possible from Kansas southward that may kick up some strong lightning and winds that could make fires worse. But even with this system moving through, there aren't a lot of areas that are likely to see more than an inch of precipitation."
Some of the stronger storms are expected in eastern Kansas and Nebraska, and a few farther south, but not as widespread. Baranick said the third system follows a similar path to the second, moving into Kansas on Friday, then eastward into the Mississippi Valley on Saturday.
"Again, strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible, as will strong winds as this system moves through, but only the southeastern Plains -- eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and central and eastern Texas -- look to be on the receiving end of heavier rainfall amounts. Heavy snow will fall farther north into South Dakota," he added.
Wildfire risk, unfortunately, is expected to continue to be a threat in the areas that don't receive precipitation, which includes many areas of the High Plains, such as western Nebraska, Colorado, western Kansas, and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
"Winds between these systems may be strong at times, and while dew points will be rising, it will still be dry enough out there to keep the threat of wildfires going this week," he concluded.
The National Interagency Fire Center reports that the Nebraska fires alone have cost over $26.5 million, which includes the cost to fight the fires, expenses for crews, and equipment and support. This doesn't include the total economic, health and property damage. The impact is extensive for farmers and ranchers in these areas because of the loss of grass and grazing land for their cattle. Nebraska ranchers can find assistance on the Nebraska Sandhills Rancher Fire Relief Facebook page, which includes information on how to fill out funding requests.
See other DTN wildfire coverage, including links to how to care for livestock affected by the fires and how to access USDA resources:
-- "USDA, Pillen Rally Aid as Fire Grows," https://www.dtnpf.com/…
-- "NE Wildfires Rage Across 740K Acres," https://www.dtnpf.com/…
Jennifer Carrico can be reached at jennifer.carrico@dtn.com
Follow her on social platform X @JennCattleGal
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