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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/13 10:55

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures All Higher at Midday

   Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 
11 to 12 cents higher; wheat futures are 2 to 8 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 
11 to 12 cents higher; wheat futures are 2 to 8 cents higher. The U.S. stock 
market is mixed at midday with the S&P 5 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 
45 higher. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade has crude 
narrowly mixed and natural gas .12 lower. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs 
leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold off 32.50.

CORN:

   Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade extending past 
resistance with a strong finish needed to consolidate the rebound. On the 
report Wednesday, with old- and new-crop carryouts unchanged at 2.022 billion 
bushels (bb) of old and 2.102 bb of new with Brazil and Argentina production 
unchanged, and world stocks edging just slightly lower. Ethanol margins will 
see a bit of pressure from corn firming and unleaded easing. Warmer weather 
continues to be seen in the short-term forecast to boost early growth with 
rains confined to the north and west with talk of stress in the east. Basis 
action should continue to remain mostly sideways to firmer with the spread 
strength. Weekly export sales were solid at 1.06 million metric tons (mmt) of 
old crop and 69,500 mt of new. On the July chart, the 20-day moving average at 
$4.54 is resistance, which we have pushed above at midday, with the Lower 
Bollinger Band as support at $4.37, which we bounced from last week.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean futures are 11 to 12 cents higher with firmer spread action 
continuing and meal leading the product complex. Meal is 8.00 to 9.00 higher 
and oil is flat to 10 points higher. On Wednesday's WASDE report, old- and 
new-crop carryout was raised by 10 million bushels (mb) on each at 350 mb and 
455 mb with Brazil and Argentina unchanged and world numbers slightly lower. 
Open weather should help early development and late planting. South America 
should continue to lead the export market, but we did see another sale of 
old-crop U.S. soybeans to China of 120,000 metric tons (mt) Thursday morning. 
This is the fourth sale in five sessions. Weekly export sales were still soft 
at 377,100 mt of old crop; 3,000 mt of new; 143,300 of old meal; 27,100 of new 
meal; 14,600 of old oil; and 3,200 of new. Basis should remain mostly steady in 
the short term. The July chart resistance is at the 20-day moving average at 
$12.08 with support at the fresh low at 11.74 1/4.

WHEAT:

   Wheat futures are 2 to 8 cents higher at midday with Chicago action leading. 
There was little fresh news on the WASDE report to motivate buyers while 
harvest continues to move forward. On the report, we saw U.S. production up 17 
mb to 1.875 bb with old-crop carryout unchanged at 688 mb and new crop carryout 
at 758 mb. USDA made slight cuts to world production but punted on major Black 
Sea area revisions. Plains harvest should expand further into the weekend. The 
dollar is moving back higher in the range Thursday with MATIF action working 
back just off the lows. Weekly export sales had 800 mt of old crop and 223,900 
mt of new. On the KC July chart, resistance is the 20-day moving average at 
$6.85, with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.30, which we are holding above at 
midday. The 100-day moving average is at $6.15, which is the next downside 
major moving average.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com

   Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala




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